The 125th Chelmsford Stakes Fact Sheet

Form Focus Fact Sheet

The 125th Chelmsford Stakes

1600m / Group 2 / Weight for age / First run: 1895

The inaugural Chelmsford Stakes (originally the Hampden Stakes) was conducted at Randwick by the Tattersall’s (NSW) Club on Saturday, August 31, 1895 over 9 furlongs and run at WFA (with penalties and allowances). Won by the 7/4f Newman, the 7yo gelding was trained by W. (Bill) Kelso (Senior) and ridden by apprentice David Cook. Tragically, Cook was to lose his life in a race fall in early 1899.

The Club re-named the race from the Hampden to the Rawson Stakes in 1903, then in 1909 eventually landed on the Chelmsford Stakes.

Generally staged in early September/late August over 9 furlongs (1800m), the race was shortened to its current distance of 1600m in 1985. Variations include: 1500m (Rosehill-2000), 1400m (Kensington-2001) and 1550m (Kensington-2006). Mainly run at Randwick, Warwick Farm has also been the venue on occasions.

Phar Lap, Bernborough, Tulloch, Kingston Town (x2), Gunsynd, Gloaming, Heroic, Windbag, Beau Vite and Emancipation are some of the famous winners in the first 100 years of the race. Recent winners include Winx, Might and Power and Hartnell, while multiple winners are Limerick (x3), Delta (x3), Roman Consul (x3) and dual winners Lonhro, Rogilla, Prince Darius and Prince Foote.

T.J. (Tommy) Smith boasts a staggering 16 winners of the Chelmsford, commencing with Tulloch (1960) and ending with Stargazer (1991). On five wins each are Maurice McCarten and Chris Waller.

Leading rider with 6 victories is Neville Sellwood – Bernbrook (1948), Delta (1950/1951/1952), Prince Cortauld (1954) and Tulloch (1960). Maurice McCarten also has 5 wins as a jockey (to go with his 5 as a trainer), equal with Jimmy Cassidy and Darby Munro.

Profile

Year T/R Winner Trainer Jockey A/S OR
2019 G4-8M SAMADOUBT B BAKER T CLARK 6G 109
2018 G4-10M UNFORGOTTEN C WALLER H BOWMAN 4M 105
2017 G3-6M WINX C WALLER H BOWMAN 6M 132
2016 H8-6M HARTNELL J O'SHEA J MCDONALD 6G 110
2015 S6-8M COMPLACENT J O'SHEA S CLIPPERTON 5H 103
2014 H9-4M HAWKSPUR C WALLER J CASSIDY 5G 108
2013 G3-8M HAWKSPUR C WALLER J CASSIDY 4G 103
2012 G3-2M DANLEIGH C WALLER H BOWMAN 9G 110
2011 G3-3M TRUSTING J THOMPSON J MOREIRA 5H 107
2010 H9-8M THESEO G WATERHOUSE N RAWILLER 7G 118

T/R: (Track/Rail):

Note that the venue was Warwick Farm (2011, 2012), with 4 rain-affected tracks over the sample decade

Trainers:

The Waller yard (5 out of the last 8 winners) are the dominant stable – they have a more than solid 9 of the 16 final acceptors in 2020. Team Hawkes won with O’Lonhro (2009) and John prepared Lonhro (2002/2003)

Jockeys:

Clark, McDonald, Clipperton and Rawiller are all chasing their second Chelmsford win

OR (Official Handicap Rating):

The OR panel here shows some well-exposed class is required to win the Chelmsford – no winner rated lower than 103 over the decade

Punting

Year Winner BR Field SP FAV FP
2019 SAMADOUBT 14 14 $2F AVILIUS 2ND
2018 UNFORGOTTEN 5 15 $3.80F UNFORGOTTEN 1ST
2017 WINX 3 12 $1.09F WINX 1ST
2016 HARTNELL 2 6 $2.05F HARTNELL 1ST
2015 COMPLACENT 5 16 $3.50EF ROYAL DESCENT / PORNICHET 3RD / 6TH
2014 HAWKSPUR 2 8 $3.40F SACRED FALLS 4TH
2013 HAWKSPUR 2 11 $2.90F VEYRON 9TH
2012 DANLEIGH 4 9 $3.20F SECRET ADMIRER 2ND
2011 TRUSTING 11 12 $3.70F TRUSTING 1ST
2010 THESEO 4 9 $3F THESEO 1ST

Barriers:

A low draw appears favourable according to the 10-year stats. Big fields (14 or more) only occurring three times in the decade

SP (Favourite):

Five wins from the past 10 favourites (50%) is an acceptable return. Not generally known as a race for upsets, just one winner (Complacent-2015) has come from 65 starters to SP at $14 or longer over the last 10 years

Longshots:

Electro (Billy Camer) delivered a huge upset in 1955 when scoring at 66/1, then in 1972 Turbino (Ray Selkrig) became the second longest-priced winner at 50/1

Hotpots:

Kingston Town (1980) was sent out 1/20f and duly saluted over 3 opponents by 5 lengths. Winx ($1.09f-2017) and Bernborough (1/6f-1946) are next in line in this category

Performance

Year Winner A/S OR Last Start L3 Next Race
2019 SAMADOUBT 6G 109 1st Winx 1 6th Geo Main
2018 UNFORGOTTEN 4M 105 6th Winx 6 3rd Epsom
2017 WINX 6M 132 1st Warwick 1 1st Geo Main
2016 HARTNELL 6G 110 2nd Warwick 2 1st Hill
2015 COMPLACENT 5H 103 12th Warwick 12 3rd Hill
2014 HAWKSPUR 5G 108 5th Warwick 7-5. 4th Geo Main
2013 HAWKSPUR 4G 103 7th Warwick 7 4th Geo Main
2012 DANLEIGH 9G 110 3rd Warwick 3 6th Geo Main
2011 TRUSTING 5H 107 5th Warwick 5 1st Hill
2010 THESEO 7G 118 5th Warwick 5 7th Geo Main

Last Start:

The pattern of the Winx (Warwick) into the Chelmsford has worked perfectly over the past 10 years. Curiously, Zebrowksi in 2020 is the only Chelmsford acceptor via the Winx Stakes

L3 (Last 3 Starts):

This panel shows no first-up winner over the decade, yet the 2020 edition has 8 of the 16 acceptors resuming. Unearthly (2004) is the most recent first-up winner. Others include Brave Prince (2001) and Pasta Express (2000)

Next Race:

Mixed bag of results in this section, Winx, Hartnell and Trusting advancing to next start feature success, the remainder bombing out, mainly in the George Main

Pros & Cons

Negative:

If we pay attention to the 10-year trend of a Handicap (OR) rating of 103 and above being a reliable barometer to Chelmsford success, then horses like Carif, Angel of Truth and Morton’s Fork reside in the negative zone. Longshots are also unreliable propositions (as a rule), so the obvious contenders in this sector include Wu Gok and Brimham Rocks

Beware:

The strike-rate of mares in this race has improved markedly this century, five scoring since 2004. Only five other mares had won the Chelmsford prior to 2004. Of the 3 mares engaged, Danzdanzdance and Miss Sentimental look vulnerable in 2020

Positive:

Numerous positive indicators support Avilius to win the 2020 Chelmsford Stakes. Runner-up when second-up in the 2019 version (when $2f), Avilius has had 8 starts in Sydney from 1600m to 2000m (inclusive) for five wins, one second (Chelmsford), one third (Ranvet) and one fourth (Chipping Norton)

Finche was only a length astern of Avilius when a first-up fifth in the 2019 Chelmsford, the pair having met on four occasions – the score-line an even two all. Beaten approximately a length and a half in both the Melbourne and Caulfield Cups last Spring, Finche has the right class ingredients required to win the Chelmsford first-up

With a (provisional) rating currently of 96, Zebrowski may sit outside the ratings required for Chelmsford victory, but as the only horse in the 2020 Chelmsford to navigate his way via the Winx Stakes, he remains under notice. With some outside chance is the mare Nettoyer (eighth in the 2019 Chelmsford) but she will need the speed to be genuine to score

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