Form Focus Fact Sheet
The 140th Caulfield Guineas Fact Sheet
The 140th Caulfield Guineas
1600m / Group 1 / 3YO-Set Weights / First run: 1881
The Caulfield Guineas was first staged at Caulfield on Thursday, October 13, 1881, day one of the Victoria Amateur Turf Club’s two-day Spring Meeting. Conducted over 8 furlongs for 3yo at Set Weights, the race was won by the 6/4 favourite Wheatear, ridden by W. (Billy) Yeomans.
Trained out of Sydney by the astute Tom Lamond, Wheatear had won the AJC Derby in early September but wasn’t entered for the VRC Derby. Instead, Lamond ran his 3yo in the Melbourne Stakes on Derby Day – which he duly won. Wheatear then contested the Melbourne Cup but suffered at the hands of a stray dog at the half-mile of the Cup and fell, bringing down Suwarrow.
The Guineas weight conditions included penalties & allowances from 1888-1908, reverting to Set Weights thereafter. The venue from 1940 to 1943 was Flemington, due to Caulfield being used for military purposes during World War 2.
The Guineas honour roll includes Tulloch, Vain, Heroic, Manikato, Sobar, Ajax, Luskin Star, Artilleryman, Mahogany, High Caste, Red Anchor, Lonhro & Wallace. Twelve fillies have beaten the boys, Surround, Dual Choice, Storm Queen & Wiggle amongst them.
Bart Cummings, Hugh Munro, Geoff Murphy & James Scobie share the training honours with 5 winners each, ahead of Tom Payten with 4.
No less than 9 riders have each ridden 3 Guineas winners – Scobie Breasley, Tom Hales, Roy Higgins, George Lambert, Bobby Lewis, Maurice McCarten, George Moore, Ashley Reed, Brent Thomson.
|2019||G3-TRUE||SUPER SETH||A FREEDMAN||M ZAHRA||3C||81|
|2018||G3-TRUE||THE AUTUMN SUN||C WALLER||J MCDONALD||3C||106|
|2017||G3-TRUE||MIGHTY BOSS||M PRICE||M WALKER||3C||64|
|2016||G3-TRUE||DIVINE PROPHET||TEAM HAWKES||D DUNN||3C||86|
|2015||G3-TRUE||PRESS STATEMENT||C WALLER||H BOWMAN||3C||95|
|2014||G3-TRUE||SHOOTING TO WIN||TEAM SNOWDEN||J MCDONALD||3C||99|
|2013||G3-TRUE||LONG JOHN||P SNOWDEN||K MCEVOY||3G||86|
|2012||G3-TRUE||ALL TOO HARD||TEAM HAWKES||D DUNN||3C||100|
|2011||G4-TRUE||HELMET||P SNOWDEN||K MCEVOY||3C||104|
|2010||G3-TRUE||ANACHEEVA||P MOODY||L NOLEN||3C||96|
Rail is again in the regular true position for this meeting.
Snowden, Waller & Team Hawkes are obviously dominating this race – 7 of the past 10 winners. Hawkes also had Lonhro (2001). Mick Price (1) & the Lindsay Park operation (3) have also captured the Guineas.
Zahra (2019), Bowman (2015), Rodd (2008) & Oliver (1990) are past winners. Oliver won on his first Guineas ride (Centro), but has had 20 mounts since for 5 seconds and a third.
A/S (Age & Sex):
No fillies engaged. 12 overall have scored – Surround (1976) the latest.
OR (Official Handicap Rating):
Aside from the $101 blowout (Mighty Boss), all 9 other winners in the past 10 years had healthy Handicap ratings, ranging from 81 to 106.
|2018||THE AUTUMN SUN||5||13||$1.70F||THE AUTUMN SUN||$1.70F||1ST|
|2015||PRESS STATEMENT||14||16||$2.50F||PRESS STATEMENT||$2.50F||1ST|
|2014||SHOOTING TO WIN||8||13||$7.50.||RICH ENUFF||$1.80F||2ND|
|2013||LONG JOHN||1||14||$3.80F||LONG JOHN||$3.80F||1ST|
|2012||ALL TOO HARD||3||8||$12||PIERRO||$1.22F||2ND|
Stats favouring a low draw over the last 10 years. The previous decade? 4 winners came from a double-digit gate – 10,11,12 & 13 all notching a victory.
Here we see the favourite being invariably competitive with four landing the money. Over the last 50 years, the SP favourite has saluted 16 times = 32% strike-rate
Can be a superb race for the bookies. Abaridy (250/1) scored in 1986, Bayside (200/1) in 1952, Mighty Boss ($101) in 2017 & Marwong (66/1) in 1987 (on protest)
An odds-on favourite has scored on 22 occasions, Bobadil (1/4f) in 1898, Tulloch (2/7f) in 1957 & Storm Queen (2/5f) in 1966 being the shortest priced winners
|YEAR||WINNER||A/S||OR||LAST START||L3||NEXT RACE|
|2019||SUPER SETH||3C||81||5th Gneas Prelude||1-6-5.||SPELL|
|2018||THE AUTUMN SUN||3C||106||1st Golden Rose||3-1.||SPELL|
|2017||MIGHTY BOSS||3C||64||4th Stutt||2-7-4.||SPELL|
|2016||DIVINE PROPHET||3C||86||2nd Stan Fox||1-4-2.||SPELL|
|2015||PRESS STATEMENT||3C||95||1st Stan Fox||2-5-1.||SPELL|
|2014||SHOOTING TO WIN||3C||99||1st Stan Fox||2-3-1.||SPELL|
|2013||LONG JOHN||3G||86||3rd Gneas Prelude||3-1-3.||9th Cox Plate|
|2012||ALL TOO HARD||3C||100||4th Geo Main||3-5-4.||2nd Cox Plate|
|2011||HELMET||3C||104||1st Gneas Prelude||3-3-1.||8th Cox Plate|
|2010||ANACHEEVA||3C||96||1st Gneas Prelude||1-1.||SPELL|
Clearly not a good option to perform poorly in your final lead-up. Best to be highly competitive in a Group event. The only Guineas winner since 1990 to finish worse than fifth in its final lead-up race was Econsul (2004) who was sixth in the G2 Stan Fox.
L3 (Last 3 Starts):
The theme/trend here is consistency with 8 of the past 10 winners securing a win in one of their last 3 outings.
Appears to be two options – go for a vacation or have a lash at the Cox Plate. The latter is clearly a difficult assignment – just 4 Guineas winners have won the Cox Plate, the latest being Red Anchor (1984)
Pros & Cons
Whilst it isn’t impossible to come from the widest gate and win the Guineas, the challenge facing Crosshaven from 14 appears two-fold. One: only Press Statement (2015) has won from a gate higher than 13 since 1985 – and he was $2.50 favourite. Two: just 4 horses have secured the Guineas Prelude-Guineas double (21 others failing). Those 4 winners all drew a gate inside 10.
Transitioning from a G1 winner at two to a G1 winner in Spring as a 3yo can be problematical and in Tagaloa (Blue Diamond winner) we have a further example. Only Manikato (1978) & Redoute’s Choice (1999) have secured the Guineas after Blue Diamond success – 10 other Diamond winners all failed in the Guineas. Further, Tagaloa was the 11th 3yo to contest the Rupert Clarke since 2000 and was a luckless sixth. All the 3yos (6) that finished out of the money in the Rupert Clarke that then contested the Guineas – all missed a place.
A 30-year Guineas drought for Damien Oliver can be broken with Mo’unga, interstate-based yards enjoying a terrific run in Victoria during Spring 2020. In a year with no dominant 3yo, this emerging colt can justify the Waller’s yard bold plan to leap off a 4-week break, recently out of restricted grade.
The Golden Rose invariably provides solid “intel” to the Guineas winner and in King’s Legacy & Ole Kirk we have two well-performed 2yos who have returned in great shape at 3 – always a good Guineas recipe. Cambourne (gear/jockey change) represents value.