Queen Elizabeth Stakes

Saturday, October 16
Caulfield, VIC / 1600m / Race 9

The Betting:

Knowledge & Insight

All the talk and hype will justifiably be centred on Winx in the lead-up to the 2018 Queen Elizabeth and it’ll be interesting to observe what odds she’ll start.

Successful at $1.12 last year, it’s doubtful that she’ll reach the 1/9 odds that Tulloch did in the 1958 Queen Elizabeth when the 3yo defeated just three rivals on day four of the AJC Autumn Carnival.

This was Tulloch’s third success in a week at the Carnival, Tommy Smith’s freakish colt scoring by 20 lengths in the AJC St Leger (14f) on day one, then on day three (Wednesday) he tackled the WFA All Aged Stakes over a mile, and again scaring off his rivals, scored at 1/3f in a field of four.

Overall, 28 favourites have saluted in the 64 editions of the race -despite this impressive stat, there are some curiously unnerving stats for odds-on favourites since the race was reduced to 2000m in 1979 – the Verdict will pick apart this trend on Friday.

Form Focus Verdict

There’s been one other Queen Elizabeth winner as short as Tulloch (1/9) in 1958 – that was 1968 winner General Command who also started at 1/9.

The General had only 5 days earlier careered away with the Sydney Cup by 6 lengths (under 9.3) and met just three opponents in the Queen Elizabeth, again serving up a six-length pounding.

Yet, while “graveyard” is hardly worthy of describing the performance of odds-on favourites in the Queen Elizabeth, the records do reflect the race as a death-trap for some:

  • Odds-On Favourites – 31 starters: 14 wins, 8 seconds, 4 thirds, 5 unplaced

In reality, more get beaten than win – so whether the odds-makers are tempted to risk Winx in tomorrow’s race is debatable – it certainly made no difference to the great mare last year when $1.12.

Since the race has been run over 2000m, (aside from Winx), the 5 shortest priced favourites have all been beaten:

  • (2013): It’s a Dundeel – $1.28 (Second)
  • (2004): Lonhro – $1.26 (Second)
  • (1999): Sunline –1/2 (Fifth)
  • (1989): Beau Zam – 4/6 (Third)
  • (1987): Our Waverley Star – 2/9 (Fifth)

The Betting:

Knowledge & Insight

All the talk and hype will justifiably be centred on Winx in the lead-up to the 2018 Queen Elizabeth and it’ll be interesting to observe what odds she’ll start.

Successful at $1.12 last year, it’s doubtful that she’ll reach the 1/9 odds that Tulloch did in the 1958 Queen Elizabeth when the 3yo defeated just three rivals on day four of the AJC Autumn Carnival.

This was Tulloch’s third success in a week at the Carnival, Tommy Smith’s freakish colt scoring by 20 lengths in the AJC St Leger (14f) on day one, then on day three (Wednesday) he tackled the WFA All Aged Stakes over a mile, and again scaring off his rivals, scored at 1/3f in a field of four.

Overall, 28 favourites have saluted in the 64 editions of the race -despite this impressive stat, there are some curiously unnerving stats for odds-on favourites since the race was reduced to 2000m in 1979 – the Verdict will pick apart this trend on Friday.

Form Focus Verdict

There’s been one other Queen Elizabeth winner as short as Tulloch (1/9) in 1958 – that was 1968 winner General Command who also started at 1/9.

The General had only 5 days earlier careered away with the Sydney Cup by 6 lengths (under 9.3) and met just three opponents in the Queen Elizabeth, again serving up a six-length pounding.

Yet, while “graveyard” is hardly worthy of describing the performance of odds-on favourites in the Queen Elizabeth, the records do reflect the race as a death-trap for some:

  • Odds-On Favourites – 31 starters: 14 wins, 8 seconds, 4 thirds, 5 unplaced

In reality, more get beaten than win – so whether the odds-makers are tempted to risk Winx in tomorrow’s race is debatable – it certainly made no difference to the great mare last year when $1.12.

Since the race has been run over 2000m, (aside from Winx), the 5 shortest priced favourites have all been beaten:

  • (2013): It’s a Dundeel – $1.28 (Second)
  • (2004): Lonhro – $1.26 (Second)
  • (1999): Sunline –1/2 (Fifth)
  • (1989): Beau Zam – 4/6 (Third)
  • (1987): Our Waverley Star – 2/9 (Fifth)